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Grocery Guru Episode #38: Have Morrisons and Asda Taken Their Eye Off the Ball?
Join Andrew Grant and Darren A. Smith in the thirty-eighth episode of the Grocery Guru. They discuss the latest Kantar market share showing 12 weeks to 20th July 2021. Asda and Morrisons losing share, Tesco gaining, and Aldi & Lidl showing flat growth.
You Can Read the Full Kantar Market Share Transcript Below:
Darren A. Smith:
Hello, and welcome to your weekly episode with The Grocery Guru. This is episode 38 and we are here with that guru, Andrew Grant. Andrew, how are you?
Andrew Grant:
Good morning.
Darren A. Smith:
Now, Andrew. I know that the market shares have just been published and you’ve got a unique take on what you think is happening.
Andrew Grant:
I’m not sure about a unique take, but yeah, we always wait for Kantar data that comes out 20th-ish of every month, because I think it’s the most comprehensive view of what’s happening in the market. I think we’ve covered it maybe two or three times since the pandemic started. And yeah, there’s some subtleties in the figures for me. I mean, overall, total multiples are still up 11% on two years ago. So as we said, a few episodes ago, with the pandemic technically ending, people are going to go back out to pubs and restaurants. They’re not going to do as much home shopping and therefore, the multiples are probably in a fairly rough ride during the summer.
Yeah, I wouldn’t say it’s a rough ride, maybe a few little bumps. I mean, they’re down 4.6% on the year. Tesco down 3.7, Sainsbury’s down three, so that’s probably not too bad. So probably expecting worse.
Darren A. Smith:
Let me just put that back in people’s heads. So year on two years ago for the last, what, 12 weeks to 23rd of July, the multiples are up 11%. That’s right, isn’t it?
Andrew Grant:
On two years ago.
Darren A. Smith:
On two years ago. So up 11%, but on a year ago they’re down 5%, give or take.
Andrew Grant:
And obviously a year ago was the peak of the pandemic. So yeah, if you take a two year view, the grocers have been really successful at riding this pandemic. But within the numbers, a few interesting things. Co-op and Iceland are the worst performers, not surprisingly, a Co-op is on every street corner.
They don’t have many big superstores, so they were the big winners of the pandemic when people just literally didn’t want to shop at a big store where there were those other people who could potentially pass on the virus, they popped to the local Co-op. And to a lesser extent, I guess, Iceland being sort of city center or town center location. So I can understand why Co-op figures don’t look brilliant, although they’re us still up in double digit from two years ago.
Darren A. Smith:
So they’re up 12% on two years but they’re down 15% year on year?
Andrew Grant:
Yeah. But what’s for me is I think a little bit of the slightest star of some blue water between Tesco and Sainsbury’s and Asda and Morrisons is starting to appear. So Aldi and Lidl have come back, they’re flat on last year. So probably something in there about they don’t have home shopping, and home shopping is down. I forget the numbers. You may have them more to have. Oh yeah. So online groceries dropped by 2.6%.
Darren A. Smith:
Yep.
Andrew Grant:
So I think Aldi and Lidl have picked that up. So Aldi and Lidl are flat. Tesco seems to be doing really well. Tesco’s put on 4.4 points of market share is almost unheard of in the last 10 years, but Asda are losing market share as are Morrisons and twice the decline of Tesco and Sainsbury’s on a year.
Darren A. Smith:
So we’ve got Tesco hitting the high of 27% market share.
Andrew Grant:
Yep.
Darren A. Smith:
They’re doing well. And you think they’re stealing that predominantly from Asda and Morrisons?
Andrew Grant:
No, no, actually. I think it’s a bit more complex than that. I think Tesco in particular, and we’ve said it before, have found a way to neutralize Aldi and Lidl.
Darren A. Smith:
Okay, right.
Andrew Grant:
Yeah. Their price match campaign, their club card promotions I think are fantastic, and fantastic value. I think Tesco and to a similar extent, Sainsbury’s have found a way to stop the bleed of shoppers to Aldi and Lidl. I don’t think Asda and to some extent Morrisons have. So I think the Aldi and Lidl bounce back is partly to the fact that less people are doing home shopping, but that home shopping could be stealing from Asda and Morrisons rather than Tesco and Sainsbury’s.
Darren A. Smith:
It could be, and as you said, so online people are doing less online. They’re going back to bricks and mortar shopping.
Andrew Grant:
Yep.
Darren A. Smith:
I read something in here that said, let’s have a look.
Andrew Grant:
Still 13% of the market, though.
Darren A. Smith:
Yes, it is. It is. It’s still huge. Yeah.
Andrew Grant:
I think it hit 18, didn’t it, at the peak of the pandemic. And I think one of the grocers reported 20 odd percent online sales, but 13 is still double what it was two years ago.
Darren A. Smith:
It’s very true. Very true.
Andrew Grant:
So pretty serious. And you know, yeah, just to bring the online thing into focus, Ocardo’s growth, on two years ago, up 50%, I mean, absolutely flying. So as long as they can stop their robots fighting with each other, they’re probably doing pretty well.
Darren A. Smith:
You’re referring to the fire between the robots at say, depot recently, aren’t you?
Andrew Grant:
I just thought it so funny that six robots decided to gang up on each other and have a big fist fight in the middle of the warehouse.
Darren A. Smith:
Robo wars. Ocardo robo wars. Maybe they want to start that. Maybe it’ll catch on.
Andrew Grant:
I used to like [inaudible 00:06:05], yeah. It was good. So yeah. So I think it’s quite an interesting time to look at what’s happening in the market because obviously, pandemic technically over, obviously this week, there’s all these problems of shop workers and depo workers and drivers being pinged. I think that’s a short term blip, but going into the autumn, yeah, I think there’s some interesting stuff going on here because I think Tesco and Sainsbury’s are very well set. Asda and Morrison’s, Asda’s recently being taken over. That always causes problems.
So is their eye off the ball and is that going to cause longer term problems? And obviously Morrisons right in the middle of a bidding battle. That’s guaranteed to take your eye off the ball. So I think Asda and Morrisons are the ones to watch through the autumn in terms of will they struggle. Aldi and Lidl I think will continue to do well. And Ocardo’s steam rolling. Steam rolling on. So interesting to watch Asda and Morrisons over the next six months, I think.
Darren A. Smith:
Okay, all right. Assume it here. What other nuggets have you got from the Kantar data?
Andrew Grant:
I think that was it. The only other one we haven’t mentioned is Waitrose. Yeah. Waitrose picking up again. I think their customers, it might be a complete generalization, but I think generally their customer’s slightly older profile, probably more wary of shopping during the pandemic.
Darren A. Smith:
Yeah.
Andrew Grant:
So I think Waitrose probably hit harder, but still, their two year growth is the same as the others, but their one year growth is better. So, maybe Waitrose are starting to become a bit of a star. And I did read, was it last week? Yeah, John Lewis and Waitrose are going start building their own flats and houses and you’ll have built in Waitrose food cabinets and all this sort of stuff.
Darren A. Smith:
And also there was the departure, I think it was six months ago now, of the commercial director at Waitrose, Rupert Thomas, who I think is chief commercial officer at Fortnum & Mason, I think.
Andrew Grant:
Okay.
Darren A. Smith:
[inaudible 00:08:37] moved there, so maybe that’s bringing some changes as well. The only other thing I picked up that I thought was useful was Morrisons still doing very well with counters. Obviously most retailers are cutting back on counters and Morrison’s must be picking that up to some extent.Andrew Grant:
Yeah. It is their USP and always has been, hasn’t it?
Darren A. Smith:
Yeah.
Andrew Grant:
Yeah, no, an interesting month to review that Kantar data. We’ll see what August brings.
Darren A. Smith:
Okay. Okay. All right, Andrew, we’ll talk to you next week. Thanks very much.
Andrew Grant:
Take care.
Darren A. Smith:
Bye-bye.
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